Turkey and the EU

The Finnish failure
It’s not Turkey’s first awakening from the dream of EU accession. Since 1959 the country struggles to become a fully recognized member state but it seems the closer they come the bigger the obstacles get. The decision of the EU's foreign ministers to close the negotiations for eight chapters of the Ankara's EU negotiating book is a serious backlash. Watching 12 new member states passing by in the waiting room, it’s no surprise that Turkey gets impatient, if not even angry.

The press counsellor of the Finnish presidency in Brussels, Marko Ruonala, can’t tell much new about the status of the accession talks with Turkey. Nevertheless it seems to be just the beginning of a more general downswing concerning Turkey’s accession.

A few weeks ago Matti Vanhanen, the finnish Prime Minister, claimed a final solution of the Turkey-Cyprus question, which mainly means the give in of Turkey, until the Commission publishes its proposal on this case at the end of this year. The Ankara-protocol contains Turkey’s extension of the customs union to all of the new member states.

Now the proposal is published, Vanhanen’s emergency trip to Istanbul failed and the EU decided to close important negotiations. Is this the moment of the long-feared “train-crash”?

Does the gate of Europe close for Turkey? (Photo: AH)

“Unfair treatment of Turkey”
Indeed it is a first honest and clear statement of the EU for a long time. Whereas Turkey starts thinking now about the “serious consequences” they want to threaten Europe with, it was long clear for Europeans that Turkey’s accession is a dead-end. Beating about the bush, making contradictory statements and postpone a decision wherever you can, that’s the EU’s internal way of making sure it won’t happen.

“In my opinion it’s unfair how they take Turkey as a fool and put the country off with second-ranking arguments”, says Horst Bacia, former Turkey and current Brussels correspondent from the German newspaper “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”. He lists the newly adopted budget which doesn’t include any possibility for an entry until 2013 and the half-hearty chapter negotiations. Since the EU opened the accession negotiations in October 2005 they have opened only one chapter, the chapter of science and research. In his eyes, this shows a lot.

But that’s not the sole opinion of an expert. British M.E.P. Daniel Hannan shares his opinion. Although he is known to be hypocritical towards the EU’s bodies he admits, “I would have liked Turkey to join the EU, but I am sure it won’t happen.”

Another example for Europe’s tactic is the accession treaty itself. On the one hand it clearly states that the outcome of the negotiations is to be the accession. On the other hand it stresses that the solution doesn’t have to be the entry.

Sceptical: M.E.P. Daniel Hannan (Photo: AH)

Turkish pride and prejudice
Although support among Turkish population during the accession process also vanishes dramatically, Turkey’s government seems to be the only one who sees the glass half-full.

Just some hundred meters from the house of the Finnish presidency, in the fourth floor of a brickwork building in Rue Montoyer sits Mr. Çaglar Çakiralp. He’s first secretary and spokesperson of the Turkish permanent representation to the EU. The red flag with the white crescent is flapping outside his office window. A portrait of Turkey’s father, Atatürk, is the only decoration on his white walls. They are both proud men.

“We can easily open our ports, that’s not the problem,” Mr. Çakiralp announces, ”However, we won’t do it until the EU lifts its trade embargo for Turkish North-Cyprus”.

Sitting in the EU’s waiting room for 47 years hasn’t cracked Turkey’s pride. “We are a European country. We are everywhere in Europe except the Council”, Çakiralp points out.

He is not angry about all the specious arguments which are used against Turkey’s entry. He knows “in ten, fifteen years Turkey will not be the same any more, but also Europe will have to have changed.”

The question about the genocide on the Armenians is exaggerated, he means, adding that there are two sides of every story: “The Armenians know very well that there has never been a genocide, it’s their raison d'être.”

Also the famous article 301 in the Turkish penal code, which makes it a crime to insult “Turkishness”, is subject to prejudices in Europe, he claims: “There are similar articles in the laws of other European countries”.

Turkish spokesman: Çaglar Çakiralp (Photo: AH)

His profound belief that “Europe needs Turkey and Turkey needs Europe” provides him and his country with the self-confidence to insist on an entry to their conditions.


Enlargement train on slow-speed
However, Turkey might have noticed in the meanwhile that “The EU is a community of law. Failure to meet them cannot remain without consequences”, as Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn states in a recent speech.

He had always supported the accession negotiations with Turkey strongly and worked hard together with his Finnish fellow-countrymen to find a compromise during their presidency. Now, again, he tries to put it mildly: “There will be no train crash, but there is a slowing down because of works further down the tracks, however the train continues to move.”

In detail that means that the most important chapters of the 36 negotiating chapters won’t be opened and the current ones won’t be closed until a solution is found. Everybody can choose on his own if one might call that complete stop or just no further proceeding.

Even though it’s a long way to Turkish membership, and it looks dark right now, it doesn’t necessarily mean that everything is lost. The Turkish representation in Brussels sounds optimistic anyway: “I think the EU took a too big mouthful by letting so many new countries in at once. The EU must first settle with this challenge. Afterwards it should be ready to include Turkey in a full membership.”


Turning away from Europe
The Turkish people has already made its decision: Since the opening of the membership talks in October 2005 the percentage of the population supporting a Turkish EU membership has fallen from 64% to 32%. With Turkish nationalist parties gaining more and more strength, the engagement of Turkey’s government for an access is also at stake. Elections next year not only in Turkey, but also in France and the United Kingdom, add a further element of shakiness to the European future of Turkey.

At least in one point the Turkish and the European population is of the same opinion: They as well are not so fond any more of further enlargement. Europeans are suffering from the “Enlargement blues”. Approval of the EU in general sinks continuous, the constitution is put on hold and since the last round of enlargement nothing really seems to work out for Europe.

Considering the opposition of its population further enlargement could mean a hard time for the future of Europe. Some false friends of enlargement even hope for a backlash to a mere economical union. However, before this decision has to be taken, Europe has to get rid of its institutional problems as the Nice Treaty of 2000 claims.


It's time for the hard line
Especially Germany, already being home for 1.7 million Turks, fears the entry of another poor country and of course, what nobody speaks out loud, the loss of its influx on the European council. Turkey in the EU would, according to its size, be extremely influential in the council.

Therefore, it’s no wonder that the coming German presidency promises a development of the existing neighbourhood policy without making promises for later access to the EU. After the failure of a Finnish-made compromise for Turkey and Cyprus, Angela Merkel is now able to track her “hard line” towards Turkey’s entry with a clear conscience.

Nevertheless, this will have a deep impact on Turkey. Will it turn eastwards, will it “get lost” for Europe? Marcello Faraggi, European journalist in Brussels, advises against overestimation of politics: “Politics is not all, if it is the wish of Turkey’s population to develop westwards they will do that, this way or the other.”

Indirectly, Mr. Çakiralp from the Turkish representation to the EU confirms this: “Our ultimate goal is not an EU membership, but a fully modernised country”.


Long perspectives
Mr. Faraggi, although not being sure whether he wants Turkey in or not, criticizes European political proceeding. “Since when should politicians take decisions which please their people? They were elected because they have special knowledge which enables them to consider problems more complex, or at least they should do so”, he explains his point of view.

So should Europe better be careful not to gamble away a stability pole in the Middle East, a supplier of young people for a graying Europe and an economic engine for Europe’s satisfied markets? That’s a question decision-makers in the EU should ask themselves.

Anyway, all parties agree that a Turkish entry in the EU, if it ever will happen, will take place in a very long perspective. As an internal joke from the EU quarters in Brussels puts it: “A Turkish membership will be realised just after Ukraine has finished its second EU presidency”.

Watch some comments on Turkey's situation on video: